TCN Rejects ‘Stranded Power’ Claims, Insists National Grid Can Wheel 8,700MW
The Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) has dismissed claims by the Association of Power Generation Companies (APGC) that Nigeria’s “stranded power” crisis is primarily caused by transmission constraints, insisting that the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission’s (NERC) First Quarter 2026 report shows the country’s electricity shortfall is largely a generation problem.
In a detailed statement issued in response to a THISDAY newspaper report published on July 28, 2026, TCN argued that NERC’s audited data contradicts assertions that the national grid can only wheel about 4,500 megawatts (MW) despite an installed generation capacity of over 15,500MW.
According to TCN, NERC’s report recorded an average available generation capacity of 4,457.96MW during the first quarter of 2026, a figure declared by the generation companies themselves to the System Operator. It also noted that the total installed capacity of the 28 grid-connected power plants stood at 13,625MW, lower than the 15,500MW cited by APGC.
The company maintained that Nigeria’s transmission network currently has a verified wheeling capacity of 8,700MW, following sustained investments in substations, transformers and transmission lines.
To support its position, TCN recalled that the national grid successfully transmitted a record peak of 5,801.84MW on March 4, 2025, while also recording other peaks of 5,713.60MW and 5,543.20MW earlier that year.
The transmission company further highlighted that between January 2024 and November 2025, it commissioned 82 power transformers, adding about 8,500MVA of transformation capacity, while also upgrading several transmission corridors across the country.
TCN also cited the commissioning of the Ihovbor-Benin and Ihovbor-Ajaokuta 330kV Turn-In Turn-Out transmission lines, which it said added more than 600MW of wheeling capacity and improved power evacuation from the Azura Power Plant and the National Integrated Power Project (NIPP) plant at Ihovbor.
Relying on NERC’s Plant Availability Factor (PAF) data, TCN argued that the major constraint lies with power generation facilities. It noted that the average plant availability factor for the quarter was only 32.72 per cent, meaning over two-thirds of installed generation capacity was unavailable for dispatch.
The company pointed to several generating plants that recorded extremely low availability during the period, including Alaoji 1 with zero per cent availability, Rivers 1 at 2.05 per cent, Ibom Power 1 and Sapele Steam 1 at 2.67 per cent each, Trans Amadi 1 at 8.41 per cent and Omotosho 2 at 6.15 per cent.
According to TCN, these figures reflect gas supply shortages, mechanical failures and maintenance challenges at power stations rather than transmission bottlenecks.
The company also referenced NERC’s findings that hydropower generation declined by 28.8 per cent during the quarter due to seasonal low water levels and maintenance at major hydro stations, including Jebba, Shiroro, Kainji and Dadin-Kowa.
TCN further argued that NERC’s reported grid load factor of 92.26 per cent indicates that nearly all available generation declared by GenCos was successfully dispatched, leaving only about 345MW undispatched on average, far below the 2,500MW to 4,000MW allegedly stranded daily.
It added that five power plants achieved a 100 per cent load factor during the period, demonstrating that all power declared available from those stations was fully evacuated by the transmission network.
On transmission losses, TCN said NERC recorded a Transmission Loss Factor of 7.96 per cent, equivalent to about 327MW of average hourly losses, significantly lower than the 1,200MW to 1,300MW daily technical losses cited in the report.
The company also clarified that the ₦2.61 billion cost attributed to transmission loss factor underperformance included a ₦2.35 billion GenCo capacity penalty rather than actual transmission losses.
Regarding the January 27, 2026 grid disturbance, TCN noted that NERC’s preliminary findings attributed the partial system collapse to inadequate reactive power support needed to maintain voltage stability, while a separate total system collapse on January 23 resulted from a busbar separation at the Sapele Transmission Station.
TCN acknowledged that Nigeria’s electricity sector continues to face significant challenges but maintained that evidence from NERC’s First Quarter 2026 report shows that the country’s capacity gap is driven mainly by generation constraints rather than transmission limitations.
The company reaffirmed its commitment to continued investment in grid expansion, automation, substation upgrades and vandalism prevention, while urging stakeholders to rely on verified regulatory data when discussing challenges facing Nigeria’s electricity supply industry.
